Arctic Sea-Ice Change: Insights into near-future changes in Arctic sea-ice biogeochemistry and associated ecosystemsInternal

ASIC

Activity Overview

Type: Foresight Workshop
Start Date: June 15, 2018
End Date: June 17, 2018
Venue: Davos Congress Centre, Switzerland
Contact: Jacqueline Stefels
E-mail: j.stefels [at] rug.nl
Funding Call: EuroMarine 2017 call for FWS and WG proposals
Total Budget: €7,500
Funds Granted: €7,500

Manager(s): Jacqueline Stefels

Objectives

The overarching aims of this workshop are to:

  • Summarize the existing knowledge of changes for a number of selected physical and biogeochemical variables and parameters, representative of the sea-ice ecosystem
  • Make a first tentative analysis of the effects of the predicted changes in the sea-ice horizon on the Arctic ecosystem.
  • To generate an accessible description of future changes in sea-ice biogeochemistry to focus scientific efforts, raise public awareness and facilitate climate policy making.

The workshop will aim to select appropriate variables and parameters, and provide evidence-based estimates of their changes within a pre-defined bandwidth of uncetainties. A two-step approach will be applied, which will involve quantifying the current status of the selected parameters/variables based on existing reviews and literature studies, before estimating changes for the selected paramters/variables over the coming decades, based on literature and modelling exercises.

Expected outcomes

  1. A scientific position paper on expected changes in ecology and biogeochemistry of the Arctic sea-ice environment related to changes in sea-ice physics.
  2. A comprehensible visualization diagram that illustrates expected changes in the Arctic sea-ice environment to serve policy makers and raise public awareness

Whereas the position paper and the diagram will have different audiences (scientists vs. the general public and policy makers), both will serve a similar goal. The summary exercise proposed here will clarify how climate change in the Arctic will impact the sea-ice biome, increasing our awareness of the specific sensitivity of Arctic sea-ice ecosystems and their exchanges with surrounding environments. For scientists, the position paper will serve as a guideline to focus future scientific efforts. At the same time, the diagram will allow scientists to better communicate climate change impacts to the general public.

Policymakers may use the synthesis to better define sustainable management of Arctic sea-ice related systems. An up-to date diagram may serve as a tool to illustrate not only the sensitivity of several individual parameters but also assess the resilience of the Arctic system as a whole.