Building scenarios for the sustainability of global oceanic ecosystems and fisheriesInternal


Activity Overview

Type: Foresight Workshop
Start Date: February 7, 2016
End Date: February 9, 2016
Venue: MARBEC, Sète (France)
Contact: Olivier Maury
E-mail: olivier.maury [at]
Funding Call: EuroMarine 2014 Call for Proposals
Decision Body: EuroMarine Steering Committee
Total Budget: €45,000
Funds Granted: €15,000

Manager(s): Olivier Maury
Co-organiser(s): Haritz Arrizabalaga, Laurent Bopp

Scientific scenarios integrating social and ecological phenomena are needed to achieve sustainable exploitation of marine ecosystems and to develop clear political strategies toward sustainability. This is a one week participatory workshop focusing on the development of scenarios for the sustainability of global socio-ecological oceanic systems including the interactive effects of climate change, biodiversity and ecosystems, economic drivers of fisheries and markets, governance strategies for open ocean fisheries, and political, legal and institutional contexts. The workshop is designed to contribute to IPBES and IPCC endeavours while ensuring political relevance and social usefulness for major stakeholders of oceanic systems. The present initiative would provide such organisations with relevant scenarios of the impact of climate change and alternative governance strategies on oceanic socio-ecosystems and the services they provide to societies.

It is expected that the scenarios developed during the workshop will serve as tools to help factor long-term dynamics into decision making. The main output of the workshop will be a set of reference scenarios for oceanic ecosystems and fisheries including corresponding governance strategies, management measures, and legal and institutional evolutions. The scenarios developed during the workshop will be used in simulations with coupled numerical models.  These will be made available to the scientific community through a set of peer review articles in a special issue of a journal. 

Nine experts attended this follow up to a EUR-OCEANS Consortium scenario workshop held in 2013, involving scientists and various stakeholders in oceanic fisheries management including industry representatives.The workshop was organized as a writing meeting dedicated to the production of a paper entitled “From SSPs to OSPs. Building policy-relevant scenarios for global oceanic ecosystems & fisheries” that has been submitted and is currently under review in the journal Global Environmental Change. The paper establishes five OSPs (Oceanic System Pathways that are dealing with oceanic fisheries).

These OSP scenarios that were refined during the foresight workshop have recently been chosen to form the official scenario basis of the FishMIP (Fisheries Model Inter-comparison initiative, the marine component of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ISI-MIP). From this perspective, it is necessary to extend the five OSPs developed for oceanic fisheries to global fisheries, adding coastal and reef fisheries. The Scenario Group has also been formally acknowledged as a CLIOTOP task team and a dedicated workshop is proposed for 2017 to produce the milestone article that is expected to be the global fisheries scenario reference for all future FishMIP simulations, providing model-based ecosystem and fisheries scenarios for the next IPCC and IPBES reports.


(Oct 2017) A paper capturing the outcomes of the workshop and acknowledging EuroMarine was published: 

Maury, O., Campling, L., Arrizabalaga, H., Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Merino, G., Squires, D., Cheung, W., Goujon, M., Guivarch, C., Lefort, S., Marsac, F., Monteagudo, P., Murtugudde, R., Österblom, H., Pulvenis, J.F., Ye, Y., van Ruijven, B.J., 2017. From shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) to oceanic system pathways (OSPs): Building policy-relevant scenarios for global oceanic ecosystems and fisheries. Global Environmental Change 45, 203–216. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.06.007